France, U.K., others plan to recognize a Palestinian state. What does that change? : NPR

A flag with a watermelon, a symbol of Palestinian identity, is waved during the Red Line for Gaza protest in Paris on July 8.

Henrique Campos/AFP via Getty Images

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Henrique Campos/AFP via Getty Images

France and the United Kingdom are among the latest countries preparing to formally recognize a state of Palestine — a move by two permanent members of the U.N. Security Council that would deepen their split with Israel and the United States over the 22-month war in Gaza. Canada this week also joined the chorus of nations that have recently signaled openness to recognizing Palestinian statehood.

The planned recognition, expected as early as September, could mark a turning point. While France appears ready to move unconditionally, Britain and Canada have tied their decision to actions by Israel or the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The shift reflects mounting global outrage over the humanitarian toll in Gaza, including reports of widespread starvation in the besieged territory.

More than 145 countries recognize a state of Palestine.

Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Council on Global Affairs research group, says the move — though largely symbolic — carries diplomatic weight. “When you have states with the significance and importance of France and Britain taking this measure, it does leave the sense of a dam breaking,” Rabbani says. “One can expect others to follow.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said in a statement that recognizing a Palestinian state “rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism & punishes its victims.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared that sentiment in a post on X last week that called it a “reckless decision” that “only serves Hamas propaganda.” Palestinian Authority officials welcomed the announcements by France and the U.K., while the BBC reported that Hamas called France’s action a “positive step.”

What exactly have France, the U.K. and Canada said?

Paris, London and Ottawa have long supported a two-state solution to resolve the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict by establishing a Palestinian state, something that Palestinians say should include the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. The leaders of the three countries have said they intend to make an announcement at September’s U.N. General Assembly in New York. But they are taking slightly different approaches.

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron, in a letter shared on X, assured Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that France plans to recognize a Palestinian state. Macron called for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, “massive humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,” ensuring “the demilitarization of Hamas” and rebuilding a Palestinian state that fully recognizes Israel.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined a September timeline for Britain’s recognition of a Palestinian state unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire, halts the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and commits to a two-state solution. His statement also calls for “the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the removal of Hamas leadership from Gaza as key steps towards a negotiated two-state solution.”

Canada has some of the same conditions. In a news conference on Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government’s move was aimed at preserving a two-state solution “as the only road map for a secure and prosperous future.” Carney also said that the Palestinian Authority, which has not held elections since 2006, must hold a vote in 2026 that excludes Hamas.

More than 60,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces over the course of the war in Gaza, the Gaza Health Ministry says. The war began with a Hamas-led attack in October 2023 that killed about 1,200 people in Israel, according to Israel.

What are the practical and diplomatic implications?

U.N. Security Council members vote on a resolution calling for a ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian access in Gaza, at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on June 4. Recognition of a Palestinian state by the U.K. and France could have implications for the Security Council.

Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images

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Leonardo Munoz/AFP via Getty Images

If the U.K. and France recognize a Palestinian state, 4 out of the 5 permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — France, the U.K., Russia and China — will speak with a single voice on the issue. “That means the United States is the only country … that refuses to budge from its kind of unconditional support for everything that Israel does,” according to Khaled Elgindy, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies.

Diplomatically, it means that the recognizing countries could exchange full ambassadors with the Palestinian Authority, says Michael Lynk, a former U.N. independent expert on human rights in the Palestinian territories. “It would be raising the status of [Canada’s] representative office in Ramallah [in the West Bank] to a full embassy with an ambassador instead of a representative, and Palestine would have an ambassador and a full embassy in Ottawa.”

With France and Britain, it could mean two additional votes against Israel at the U.N. Security Council, but as Rabbani notes, “France and Britain have for decades not deployed their veto in defense of Israel.” Instead, they’ve allowed the United States to exercise its veto, he says. “So I don’t think anything is going to change in the Security Council.”

Lastly, there could be implications for the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued warrants for the arrest of Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November for “crimes against humanity and war crimes” committed since the start of the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu has called the charges “outrageous” and the international court an “enemy of humanity.”

However, France has said it would not arrest Netanyahu and Gallant because it would be “incompatible with its obligations in terms of international law with regards to immunities granted to states which are not party to the ICC” — in this case Israel.

France, Britain and Canada have all said Hamas must be sidelined from a future Palestinian state, but it’s not clear whether that is possible.

Why the sudden shift now?

“There’s a crisis. There’s a sense that something needs to be done to stop this. So you do whatever is possible. And if there’s nothing else, this is what you do,” says Yaël Ronen, a senior research fellow at the Minerva Center for Human Rights at Hebrew University.

Public opinion also plays a role. In the U.K., for example, 45% of Britons now say that their government should recognize a Palestinian state, while only 14% disagree, according to a YouGov poll conducted last week.

France former Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine told Le Monde: “Given the appalling situation in Gaza and the lack of prospects, it was becoming dishonorable to do nothing.”

Rabbani adds: “They’ve been placed in an impossible situation by the Israeli government,” amid growing domestic political pressure. Recognition may placate domestic audiences yet do little to change ground realities.