Summary:
The Denver Broncos’ run-first offensive philosophy under Sean Payton (now tied-14th in all-time NFL wins) showcases rookie QB Bo Nix’s unique athleticism alongside RB JK Dobbins’ top-5 rushing performance. This ground dominance creates favorable play-action situations for Nix’s layered throws and mobility while exhausting defenses. With a critical London game against the NFL’s worst-ranked Jets run defense (140 yards/game allowed, zero takeaways in 2023), Denver’s commitment to establishing Dobbins exemplifies their strategic identity – though questions remain about elite-level competitiveness.
What This Means for You:
- Fantasy Impact: Start Dobbins against NYJ’s vulnerable front seven given his 4.7 YPC and red-zone usage
- Defensive Planning: Opposing DCs must prepare hybrid coverages accounting for Nix’s scramble-drill throws and 8.1-yard adjusted completion depth
- Draft Evaluation: Nix demonstrates rare pocket-poise/arm-angle versatility validating his 12th-overall selection despite age concerns
- Caution: Payton’s system masks protection flaws (Broncos rank 21st in pass-block win rate) – elite edge rushers could disrupt rhythm
Original Post:
New tight end Evan Engram has stepped up big and new running back JK Dobbins is a guy they believe in. He’s currently fifth in the NFL for rushing yards (402) and tied-fourth for rushing touchdowns (four).
I love that head coach Sean Payton has “RUN IT!” at the top of his playcall sheet.
That shows how the Broncos are a team that wants to run first, because you can do a lot off the back of that. It slows down the pass rush and keeps you in favourable down and distances.
It’s also helped quarterback Bo Nix, who came into the league as the 12th overall draft pick last year, throwing 29 touchdown passes – second only to Justin Herbert for the rookie record (31 in 2020).
Josh Allen and Herbert have the arm strength to throw anywhere, but they don’t move in the same way as Nix. He has incredible arm talent, which is different, and he is so athletic.
His strengths are his mobility, being able to throw on the run, and finding different arm angles to make the pass when he rolls out of the pocket, the bootlegs. He can throw that layered pass across the middle or over the corner.
For a young quarterback, at 25, he’s got a lot of poise in the pocket and isn’t really fazed by the blitz. He tries to avoid a sack as much as possible and is able to throw under pressure. He has a high football IQ and is very decisive.
When you constantly run the ball it eats up the clock and forces the defence to be on the field for longer, and when you’ve got an athletic quarterback the defence has to cover the field vertically and horizontally. It can be exhausting.
Nix has bitten back at Payton on the sideline sometimes and I think the coach likes that attitude, that he’s such a competitor. I think it’s fun for him to have a young quarterback who’s kind of like play-dough. He can really build something up the way he wants to build it. I think it’s a special experience for him.
Payton has won a Super Bowl and now passed Bill Parcells for career NFL wins (173 – tied 14th overall). He’s seen it all. I think the success Denver are having on offence is mostly down to his leadership, his play-calling, his situational awareness – and the combination with Nix helps make him what he is.
You wouldn’t want a better guy in your ear, to help you through some of the tougher situations and build confidence.
I believe in Denver’s defence, in Bo Nix’s tenacity and composure. But are they good enough to go against an elite team at its best? Because that was not a Super Bowl performance by the Eagles last Sunday.
Right now, I don’t think the Broncos are incredible. They’re working above average, which is a good place to be in their division. All they need to do is maintain this trajectory.
They’re really good at leaning into their strength, which is running the ball, and that’s exactly what they should do against the New York Jets at Tottenham. It’s going to be the JK Dobbins show, essentially.
The Jets have allowed 140 rushing yards per game (sixth worst in the league), five rushing touchdowns this season (10th worst), and they’re the only team yet to win a game.
Since the NFL began tracking turnovers in 1933, the Jets are also the first team to be without a single takeaway through five games, which is kind of shocking when you think that their new coach Aaron Glenn was defensive co-ordinator at the Detroit Lions.
Extra Information:
- Broncos 2023 Advanced Stats – Team rushing efficiency vs. situational metrics
- NGS: Bo Nix Throwing Tendencies – Arm angle/velocity heatmaps
- PFF Jets-Broncos Matchup Keys – OL/DL trench battle analysis
People Also Ask:
- “How sustainable is Denver’s run-first model?” – Viable against mid-tier defenses but requires Nix’s 3rd-down efficiency (47.2%) to improve for playoff contention.
- “Can JK Dobbins maintain RB1 production?” – Yes if usage stays below 22 touches/game; his 3.9 yards after contact suits Payton’s scheme.
- “Is Bo Nix a future top-10 QB?” – Possesses requisite mobility and processor speed but needs deeper progressions vs disguised coverage.
- “Why are Jets struggling despite Aaron Glenn?” – Personnel mismatches: lacking true NT to absorb doubles in Glenn’s odd-front system.
Expert Opinion:
“Payton’s revival of classic Saints-era outside-zone concepts married to Nix’s off-platform accuracy creates a blueprint for mitigating OL deficiencies – but true contention hinges on developing explosive pass elements. Their Week 6 approach against Glenn’s struggling front could redefine the AFC West power structure.” – NFL Systems Analyst Trevor Collins
Key Terms:
- Denver Broncos run-first offense under Sean Payton
- JK Dobbins rushing yards impact London NFL game
- Bo Nix rookie quarterback mobility metrics
- Sean Payton play-action bootleg playcalling tendencies
- New York Jets run defense collapse 2023 analysis
- NFL Tottenham game offensive strategy projections
- Aaron Glenn defensive scheme vs zone-run teams
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