Article Summary
The housing market is experiencing a rebound in purchase application data, with an 11% week-over-week and 13% year-over-year increase. Total pending sales have slowed, indicating some impact of higher mortgage rates, but sales remain strong compared to last year. The 10-year yield has experienced fluctuations, but mortgage rates have remained stable. Mortgage spreads have improved since their 2023 peak, but remain elevated. An increase in housing inventory and new listings is a positive development for the 2024 and 2025 housing market.
What This Means for You
- Expect continued growth in the housing market, driven by increased inventory and stable mortgage rates.
- Prepare for improved mortgage spreads, which may lead to lower mortgage rates in the future.
- Monitor housing starts and unemployment claims data for a clearer picture of the market.
- Stay updated on the outcome of trade talks with China, as it may impact the bond and stock markets.
Original Post
Purchase application data
We observed a significant rebound in this data line last week after experiencing three consecutive weeks of week-to-week declines while maintaining positive year-over-year figures. Purchase applications increased by 11% week over week and 13% year over year. I focus on this index from the second week of January to the first week of May…
Total pending sales
The latest weekly total pending sales data from Altos offers valuable insights into current trends in housing demand…
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In my 2025 forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%…
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have improved since their peak in 2023…
Weekly housing inventory data
The most encouraging development in the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in inventory…
New listings data
It finally happened—we recorded over 80,000 new listings! Last year, I predicted that the new listings data would…
Price-cut percentage
For my 2025 price forecast, I anticipate a modest increase in home prices of approximately 1.77%…
The week ahead: China trade news, inflation week, housing starts and more
We have an important week ahead. We will receive updates on the outcome of the trade talks…
Key Terms
- Housing market
- Purchase applications
- Pending sales
- 10-year yield
- Mortgage rates
- Mortgage spreads
- Housing inventory
- New listings
- Price-cut percentage
- Trade talks with China
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