Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
Summary:
The U.S. government’s reopening on November 13, 2025, led to moderate sell-offs in both stocks and bonds. This reaction aligns with expectations, as a prolonged shutdown would have hurt economic growth. Federal Reserve comments questioning a December rate cut added market volatility. Key economic data releases remain delayed, creating uncertainty for investors and analysts.
What This Means for You:
- Market Volatility Ahead: Prepare for continued fluctuations as economic data resumes and the Fed’s stance on rate cuts becomes clearer.
- Monitor Key Indicators: Keep an eye on delayed economic reports, such as ADP Weekly Payrolls, for insights into market trends.
- Adjust Investment Strategies: Reassess your portfolio to manage risks associated with bond and stock market movements.
- Stay Informed: Regularly check updated schedules from data agencies to avoid surprises in market dynamics.
Original Post:
Moderately Weaker With Only The Reopening to Blame
Thu, Nov 13 2025, 4:02 PM
The government reopened on Thursday. Both stocks and bonds sold off moderately in response. The bond market weakness is in line with our expectations for a confirmed reopening based on the simple logic that a prolonged shutdown would have been increasingly detrimental to economic growth. Comments from a few Fed speakers added fuel to the fire by calling a December rate cut into question. That said, assuming the big-ticket econ data is back up and running by then, the outcome of those reports will likely add clarity to rate cut expectations (or lack thereof). In case anyone needs the reminder, econ data WILL NOT simply resume on its previous calendar. Releases that were on the schedule will be delayed until further notice and we continue waiting for an updated release schedule from data agencies.
- ADP Weekly Payrolls (Tue, 11/11)
10:14 AM
Weaker overnight and a bit more selling in the past few minutes. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 3 ticks (.09) since rate sheets. 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.113
12:24 PM
Best levels of the day in Treasuries with 10yr up only 3bps at 4.096. MBS down an eighth of a point.
01:11 PM
A bit weaker after 30yr auction. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.111
03:23 PM
New Lows. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5bps at 4.114
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Extra Information:
Federal Reserve Meeting Calendar: Stay updated on Fed rate decisions and economic projections.
BLS Employment Situation Reports: Track delayed labor market data for informed decision-making.
Treasury Yield Data: Monitor bond market trends and 10-year Treasury yields.
People Also Ask About:
- Why did stocks and bonds sell off after the government reopened? Markets reacted to uncertainty and Fed comments questioning a December rate cut.
- How does the government shutdown affect the economy? Prolonged shutdowns can harm economic growth by delaying data and policy decisions.
- What is the significance of ADP Weekly Payrolls? It provides early insights into labor market trends, impacting market expectations.
- When will delayed economic data be released? Agencies are yet to provide updated schedules, creating uncertainty.
- How should investors respond to market volatility? Reassess portfolios and stay informed about economic developments.
Expert Opinion:
The government reopening marks a critical juncture for markets, but uncertainty over economic data and Fed policy will likely drive volatility in the short term. Investors should remain cautious and proactive in adjusting strategies to navigate this fluid environment.
Key Terms:
- Government Reopening Impact
- Bond Market Volatility
- Federal Reserve Rate Cut
- Delayed Economic Data
- 10-Year Treasury Yield
- ADP Weekly Payrolls
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