Michigan Senate Race Could Be GOP’s Best Midterms Offense Play: Poll

Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers holds a considerable lead over several Democratic candidates in Michigan’s open 2026 Senate race, according to new polling.

The survey, conducted on behalf of the Republican group Sentinel Action Fund and first shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation, finds that voters would choose Rogers over the three Democratic primary candidates in head-to-head matchups. Michigan voters also prefer Republicans on immigration, crime, and the economy, giving the Republicans several “tactical advantages” in the battleground state, according to the polling memo.

In a hypothetical general election matchup against Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, Rogers holds a 13-point advantage. The Michigan Republican also leads Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens and Bernie Sanders-endorsed former public health official Abdul El-Sayed by 9 points.

Rogers, who has thus far avoided a serious primary challenger, is expected to cruise to the general election with the support of President Donald Trump, the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, and top GOP super PACs. The Michigan Republican is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters after falling short by a razor-thin margin in a 2024 Senate bid.

The three Democratic candidates are engaged in a messy primary fight that could damage the nominee who advances to the general election. The Democratic primary contest has no clear frontrunner, though Stevens led the field in the most recent fundraising quarter.

The Sentinel Action Fund, who tapped Republican polling firm Targeted Grassroots to conduct the survey, argues that the Republicans are well-positioned to flip the seat, but must have “economy-first” messaging with crime and immigration serving as “supporting” issues.

Republicans maintain a double-digit lead over a generic Democrat candidate on crime and immigration. Michigan voters also give Republicans a 7-point edge on the economy and jobs.

“While Democrats navigate their radical primary, Republicans should stay focused on cost-of-living, border security, and crime — exactly where voters already trust the GOP,” the polling memo said.

Public polling of the critical Senate race has had varied results.

A Rosetta Stone poll conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 25 found Rogers leading El-Sayed by 14 points. The survey also showed the Michigan Republican with 7-point leads over McMorrow and Stevens.

An ABC12 poll released Friday showed McMorrow and Stevens leading Rogers within the margin of error. The survey did not poll a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Rogers and El-Sayed.

The polling is likely to cement Republicans’ thinking that Michigan is one of the party’s top opportunities to flip a Senate seat during the midterms. Democrats, conversely, must hold the state in the Democratic column to achieve the party’s longshot bid of retaking Senate control.

The polling memo also argues that turning out low-propensity voters who cast ballots in 2024 could prove decisive in securing a Rogers’ victory.

The Rogers campaign is already building out a ground game operation and released an ad Friday aimed at connecting with those voters.

“A data-driven state wide operation doesn’t only win one race — it strengthens the entire ballot,” Sentinel Action Fund president Jessica Anderson said in a statement. “This new data shows that Michigan is within reach for Republicans in 2026.”

“With the right targeting, focused messaging, and a strong ground game to turn out voters across the ballot, Mike Rogers and Republicans can flip this state and build lasting conservative majorities that can carry out President Trump’s strong agenda and deliver real results for the American people,” Anderson added.

Rogers could face headwinds in a midterm election year, which historically do not bode well for the party in power. A Republican has also not won a Michigan Senate seat in more than three decades.