Summary:
Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion as its price declines, raising questions about its ability to meet optimistic forecasts for 2025. Analysts are divided on whether BTC will regain momentum by 2026, with some predicting a bear market. Key factors influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory include its correlation to macroeconomic events and sustained selling pressure from long-term holders. This uncertainty contrasts sharply with earlier bullish predictions of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end.
What This Means for You:
- Monitor Market Sentiment: Keep an eye on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to gauge market conditions and make informed decisions.
- Diversify Investments: Consider diversifying your portfolio to mitigate risks during periods of market volatility.
- Watch Key Price Levels: Pay attention to Bitcoin’s ability to rebound above $116,000, as failure to do so could signal further downside.
- Plan for Long-Term Trends: Be prepared for potential bearish conditions in 2026, as historical patterns suggest midterm years may be challenging.
Bitcoin Shows Signs of Exhaustion as Analysts Tip 2025 Forecasts:
Bitcoin’s price appears to be losing steam, which may mean that the more optimistic forecasts for the end of 2025 may not materialize this year.
However, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will see renewed momentum in 2026.
“We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025,” ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan said in comments viewed by Cointelegraph. That target is just below Bitcoin’s Oct. 4 all-time high of just over $126,000.
Morgan said that Bitcoin would need to untether itself from its current correlation with announcements made by US President Donald Trump before another bull run could occur.
It comes as Bitcoin selling intensified on Tuesday as BTC abruptly fell to 4-month lows of $100,800. Bitfinex analysts said on Tuesday that “persistent distribution from Bitcoin long-term holders continues to exert structural pressure on the market.”
Bitcoin analysts point to “broader signs of exhaustion”
Bitfinex analysts said that “this sustained outflow aligns with the broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market, as long-term holders continue to offload into declining demand.”
They warned that if Bitcoin doesn’t quickly rebound to recent levels above $116,000, it could face further downside as the year comes to a close.
“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls, as prolonged stagnation historically erodes sentiment and increases the risk of forced distribution.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, dropped by half to a score of 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, showing the market was in “Extreme Fear.”
Bitcoin’s current price weakness contrasts significantly with recent calls for explosive upside. Just weeks ago, prominent Bitcoin advocates suggested the asset could still reach $250,000 before year-end.
Bitcoiners tip $250,000 by the end of year
Speaking on the Bankless podcast in early October, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said they remain confident Bitcoin can hit between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, a prediction they’ve stuck with for most of this year.
Related: Bitcoin falls under $101K: Analysts say BTC is ‘underpriced’ based on fundamentals
However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said planets would almost need to align for Bitcoin to reach that price by the end of the year.
Analysts are divided on how Bitcoin will play out in 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan tipped in July that 2026 would be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
However, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth said in an X post on Tuesday that “2026 will likely be a bear market, similar to prior midterm years.”
It was only recently that veteran trader Peter Brandt tipped that Bitcoin could head to bear levels as low as $60,000.
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Extra Information:
For further insights, explore these resources:
Macro Factors Impacting Bitcoin in 2025, which discusses external influences on BTC’s price.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a useful tool for understanding market sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Trends on CoinMarketCap, providing real-time data on BTC’s performance.
People Also Ask About:
- What is driving Bitcoin’s price decline? Sustained selling pressure from long-term holders and declining market demand.
- Can Bitcoin recover in 2025? Analysts are divided, with some predicting a rebound and others forecasting stagnation.
- What is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index? A tool that measures market sentiment, ranging from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed.
- What are the key price levels to watch? Bitcoin needs to rebound above $116,000 to avoid further downside.
- Will 2026 be a bear market? Historical patterns suggest midterm years may be challenging, but predictions vary.
Expert Opinion:
The current Bitcoin market highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors and investor behavior in shaping cryptocurrency trends. As long-term holders offload assets, the market’s ability to recover will depend heavily on external catalysts and renewed demand. Investors should remain cautious and informed amidst these shifting dynamics.
Key Terms:
- Bitcoin price forecast 2025
- Crypto Fear & Greed Index
- Bitcoin long-term holders
- Bitcoin bear market 2026
- Bitcoin market exhaustion
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