Bitcoin Price Analysis: Slowing Momentum and Whale Activity Signal Caution
Summary:
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of cooling off after a recent recovery to the $90,000 level. Market analysts, including Axel Adler Jr. and Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, suggest that Bitcoin is entering a period of heightened risk for a prolonged correction. Key indicators, such as the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) and whale activity, point to reduced momentum and potential sideways movement. This analysis raises concerns about Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory and highlights the importance of monitoring on-chain data and investor behavior.
What This Means for You:
- Prepare for Volatility: Bitcoin may experience prolonged sideways movement or a correction in the coming months.
- Monitor Whale Activity: Keep an eye on large investors’ positions, as their actions often influence market trends.
- Evaluate Entry Points: Consider waiting for clearer signals before making significant investments in BTC.
- Long-Term Perspective: Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could enter a new bullish wave by 2026, but patience is key.
Original Post:
The price of Bitcoin appears to have cooled off after displaying great strength in recovering the $90,000 level over the past week. According to the latest price action data, this price jump will only be transient, as the premier cryptocurrency is seemingly still stuck in a bearish structure.
BTC Price Momentum Continues To Slow Down
On November 29, market analyst Axel Adler Jr. shared a fresh outlook on the price of BTC on the social media platform X. The crypto pundit revealed that the market leader might be entering a zone of “elevated risk for a prolonged correction.”
According to Adler Jr., the price momentum of Bitcoin has been witnessing a cool-off since March 2024. This observation is based on changes in the monthly Relative Strength Index, an indicator that measures the speed and magnitude at which an asset’s price changes.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Are Not ‘Remotely Bullish Enough’ — Bitwise Researcher
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the monthly Bitcoin RSI has fallen from overheated levels down to 60% since March 2024, a period marked by significant price surges. From a historical perspective, this decline could spell further trouble for the price of BTC.
Source: @AxelAdlerJr on XAs Adler Jr. highlighted on X, the flagship cryptocurrency took between 200 to 300 days to begin a new bullish wave after an RSI decline of that magnitude in the previous two cycles. Using this historical pattern, the Bitcoin price might not reach its next bottom until between June and October 2026.
Bitcoin Whales Show Reduced Conviction: Alphractal CEO
From a different on-chain standpoint, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson also has a similar not-so-optimistic stance on the price of Bitcoin in the near term. This evaluation is based on the positions of the largest investors (whales) compared to retail investors.
According to Wedson, BTC whales are either closing their long positions or slightly increasing their BTC shorts compared to retail investors. Typically, this trend leads to a period of sideways price movement — as seen between March and April 2025.
Source: @joao_wedson on X
Wedson also noted that some bears are probably looking to push the BTC price toward the $80,000 level before going on an accumulation spree. Ultimately, the combination of the falling momentum and whales’ lack of conviction paints a somewhat pessimistic picture for Bitcoin.
As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $90,979, reflecting no significant changes in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader is up by more than 7% on the weekly timeframe, according to data from CoinGecko.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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Extra Information:
For further insights into Bitcoin’s market dynamics, consider these resources: CoinDesk Markets provides real-time crypto analysis, while Glassnode offers in-depth on-chain metrics. Additionally, TradingView is an excellent tool for charting Bitcoin’s price movements.
People Also Ask About:
- What is the current Bitcoin price trend? Bitcoin is showing signs of slowing momentum and potential sideways movement.
- How does whale activity affect Bitcoin’s price? Whale actions, such as closing long positions, often indicate reduced market confidence.
- What is the significance of the RSI in Bitcoin analysis? The RSI measures price momentum and helps identify overbought or oversold conditions.
- When might Bitcoin enter a new bullish phase? Historical patterns suggest a potential new bullish wave by 2026.
- Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin? Caution is advised due to the current bearish indicators and reduced whale conviction.
Expert Opinion:
“The combination of declining momentum and reduced whale activity suggests Bitcoin is in a critical phase. Investors should remain cautious and focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations. Monitoring on-chain data will be essential to navigate this period of uncertainty.”
Key Terms:
- Bitcoin price analysis
- Bitcoin RSI indicator
- Bitcoin whale activity
- Long-term Bitcoin trends
- Bitcoin market correction
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