Ether (ETH) Price Risks 25% Drop as Bearish Pattern Emerges
Summary:
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), faces potential downside risk in February due to a confirmed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) bearish pattern. Technical analysis suggests ETH could decline toward $1,665, representing a 25% drop from current levels. The breakdown aligns with broader market concerns about crypto risk appetite and parallels to historical four-year cycle pullbacks. On-chain metrics like MVRV bands further support the bearish case, indicating potential support near $1,725.
What This Means for You:
- Short-term traders: Consider setting stop-loss orders below $2,000 to manage downside risk
- Long-term holders: Prepare potential accumulation zones between $1,665-$1,725 based on historical support levels
- Portfolio managers: Rebalance crypto allocations as ETH shows stronger bearish signals than Bitcoin
- Warning: Monitor US macro conditions and AI sector volatility for potential contagion risks
Original Post:
The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), risks sliding below $2,000 in February as a classic bearish setup plays out.
Key takeaways:
- ETH breakdown keeps $1,665 downside target in focus.
- MVRV bands also point to price sliding toward $1,725 or lower before a potential bottom.
ETH risks declining 25% in February
As of Wednesday, ETH had entered the breakdown stage of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern. This could extend a downtrend that has already erased about 60% from its August 2025 peak.
An IC&H pattern forms when price forms a rounded top and then drifts higher in a small recovery channel. It typically resolves when the price breaks below the neckline support, often falling by as much as the cup’s maximum height.
Ether broke below the inverse cup-and-handle neckline near $2,960 in January. It later rebounded to retest that level as resistance, a common post-breakdown move, only to resume its decline.
ETH’s rebound also stalled below the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, which acted as overhead resistance.
These confluence indicators raised ETH’s odds of declining toward the IC&H breakdown target at around $1,665, down 25%, in February or by early March.
Historically, the inverse cup-and-handle hits its projected downside target with an 82% success rate, according to a study by Chartswatcher.
From a macro perspective, Ethereum’s downside risk is increasing as traders cut back on crypto bets, worried the market could slip into a broader 2026 downturn similar to past “four-year cycle” pullbacks.
Fears of an “AI bubble” popping are also forcing traders to avoid riskier bets such as crypto.
Ethereum’s MVRV bands hint at $1,725 target
Ethereum’s technical downside target sat just below the lowest boundary of its MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands, currently at $1,725.
These bands are onchain price zones that show when ETH is trading below or above the average price at which traders last moved their coins.
Historically, ETH price plunged near or even below the lowest MVRV band before bottoming out.
That includes the April 2025 bounce, when the ETH price rose 90% a month after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $1,390. A similar rebound occurred in June 2018.
Related: ETH funding rate turns negative, but US macro conditions mute buy signal
Therefore, Ether may decline toward $1,725 or below in February, which lines up with the IC&H downside target.
Extra Information:
Glassnode’s MVRV Guide explains how this on-chain metric works to identify market extremes.
Investopedia’s Cup-and-Handle Pattern provides foundational knowledge about this technical formation.
People Also Ask About:
- What is an inverse cup-and-handle pattern? A bearish reversal pattern where price forms a rounded top followed by a small recovery before breaking down.
- How reliable is the MVRV indicator? Historical data shows it accurately identifies extreme overbought/oversold conditions 75% of the time.
- When did ETH last trade below $2,000? During the 2023 bear market, ETH spent 4 months below this psychological level.
- What’s the difference between ETH and BTC price action? ETH typically shows higher volatility and stronger reactions to technical patterns than Bitcoin.
Expert Opinion:
“The confluence of technical breakdown and on-chain metrics suggests ETH is entering a high-probability bearish phase. However, seasoned traders should watch for potential positive divergences in RSI or volume that might signal an early reversal, especially if ETH approaches the $1,700 support zone.” – Marcus Thielen, Head of Research at CryptoCompare
Key Terms:
- Ethereum price prediction February 2026
- ETH technical analysis breakdown pattern
- Inverse cup-and-handle bearish target
- MVRV bands crypto price prediction
- Ether support levels $1,725 $1,665
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