Summary:
Bitcoin’s recent rally has slowed after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000, with prices declining by nearly 10%. On-chain analysis by CryptoQuant indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) are engaging in moderate profit-taking, a behavior that historically signals the late stages of a bull cycle. While selling pressure remains controlled, intensified profit realization could mark the next market peak.
What This Means for You:
- Monitor LTH profit-taking trends as they are a reliable indicator of market tops and bottoms.
- Exercise caution in trading decisions, as the current market may still have room for upward movement.
- Stay informed about on-chain metrics, such as realized profit and loss, to gauge market sentiment.
- Be prepared for potential volatility if LTH selling accelerates in the near future.
Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Nearing Its End? Long-Term Holders Send Mixed Signals:
Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. The cryptocurrency has since moved lower, with its price slipping by nearly 10% from that peak. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $115,424, reflecting a 2.5% decline in the past 24 hours.
The retracement has drawn attention to on-chain activity and investor behavior, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs). A CryptoQuant analyst has been monitoring realized profit and loss metrics to gauge whether the current cycle is approaching its peak or if more upside potential remains. Data released by the analyst sheds light on how seasoned holders are reacting to Bitcoin’s latest rally.
Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles
CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms.
The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom.
A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts.
When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders.
In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top.
What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin
The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that Bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that:
Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak.
This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify.
At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking would be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely.
On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle.
For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Extra Information:
Bitcoin data shows accumulation prevails as LTH selling pressure eases – Explains the current trend of accumulation amid reduced selling pressure.
CryptoQuant analysis on LTH realized profit and loss – Provides detailed insights into long-term holder behavior across market cycles.
People Also Ask About:
- What is long-term holder (LTH) realized profit and loss? A metric that tracks when long-term Bitcoin holders sell their coins, indicating profit or loss.
- How does LTH behavior signal market tops? Surges in LTH profit realization often align with bull market peaks.
- Is Bitcoin’s current rally sustainable? Moderate profit-taking suggests the rally may continue, but intensified selling could signal a peak.
- What are the key indicators to watch in Bitcoin’s market cycle? On-chain metrics like LTH realized profit and loss and selling pressure.
Expert Opinion:
CryptoQuant’s analysis underscores the importance of long-term holder behavior in predicting Bitcoin’s market cycles. While current profit realization remains measured, a sudden acceleration in selling could indicate an impending peak. Traders should remain vigilant and use on-chain data to inform their strategies.
Key Terms:
- Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH)
- Realized profit and loss metric
- Bitcoin bull market cycle
- On-chain analytics
- Market top indicators
- CryptoQuant analysis
- Profit-taking behavior
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