Summary:
Mortgage rates have declined to 6.50%, the lowest since October 2023, according to Mortgage News Daily (MND). While Freddie Mac’s weekly survey reported 6.56%, MND’s daily tracking, based on lender rate sheets, shows a more immediate drop influenced by Fed Chair Powell’s recent remarks. This rate assumes optimal borrower conditions (780+ credit score, 25% down payment). The decline signals a potential shift in lending trends, though individual lender rates may vary due to buydown points and other factors.
What This Means for You:
- Lock in rates now – If you’re in the market for a mortgage, current lows may not last, especially with Fed policy shifts.
- Compare lenders – Rates vary; shop around for the best deal, considering points and fees.
- Monitor credit scores – A 780+ FICO score ensures eligibility for the best advertised rates.
- Watch Fed announcements – Future rate trends hinge on economic data and central bank decisions.
Original Post:
There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, we rely on surveys and data aggregations in order to routinely monitor the probable going rate.
The longest-standing weekly survey from Freddie Mac was updated today and, while it showed a decline to the lowest levels since October 2024 (something we agree with), it is too slow-moving to reflect the current reality. Freddie’s survey showed 6.56% today, and this would be based on the average of the 5 days from last Thursday through yesterday.
MND tracks daily rates based on objective rate sheet data from multiple lenders. We had the average top tier rate at 6.62% last Thursday, but it has fallen since then. To be precise, it fell quickly on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. From there, we’ve been in a narrow range this week, but each of the past 3 days have seen a modest tick lower.
The net effect is an index level of 6.50% today—the lowest we’ve seen since October 3rd, even if only a hair lower than yesterday.
It’s important to understand what 6.50% means in the context of our index. To paraphrase our methodology, this is a best-case-scenario rate that assumes a 780+ credit score and 25% down payment on an owner-occupied purchase loan within the conforming loan limit. 6.50% would be a competitive average. Some lenders will be higher and lower—especially if buydown points come into play.
The rate itself is rather unimportant when it comes to our index (or any index). It’s merely a reference point relative to the past. With that in mind, all that matters is that our reference point is at another longer-term low. Being able to say “6.5” is just a fun little bonus.
Extra Information:
- Freddie Mac PMMS – Compare MND’s daily rates with Freddie Mac’s weekly survey for broader context.
- Federal Reserve Policy Updates – Track how central bank decisions impact mortgage rate volatility.
People Also Ask About:
- Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2024? – Unlikely without a major economic downturn, but sub-6.5% rates are possible with sustained inflation improvement.
- How do buydown points affect my rate? – Paying discount points upfront (1% of loan amount) typically lowers your rate by ~0.25%.
- Why is Freddie Mac’s rate higher than MND’s? – Freddie’s survey lags by 5 days, while MND reflects real-time lender adjustments.
- Should I refinance if rates fall further? – Only if the new rate is at least 0.75% lower than your current rate to justify closing costs.
Expert Opinion:
“This dip suggests lenders are pricing in a softer Fed stance, but volatility will persist until inflation stabilizes at 2%. Borrowers should prioritize credit health and lender relationships—today’s ‘low’ could vanish quickly if jobs data surprises.” – Mortgage Strategist, MND
Key Terms:
- Conforming mortgage rate trends 2024
- Best time to lock mortgage rate after Fed meeting
- How credit score affects mortgage interest rates
- Freddie Mac PMMS vs. real-time lender rates
- Jackson Hole Symposium impact on home loans
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