Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Summary:
Monday’s trading session ended without significant movement, with modest overnight gains eroding to nearly unchanged levels by the close. The absence of notable catalysts made the day uneventful, but attention is now shifting to the upcoming jobs report. This report, delayed by a post-shutdown backlog, is anticipated to heavily influence market sentiment, particularly the unemployment rate. Its impact on volume and volatility will largely depend on how closely it aligns with forecasts, with traders also eyeing Thursday’s CPI data for further market direction.
What This Means for You:
- Prepare for potential market volatility following the release of the jobs report, especially if the unemployment rate deviates significantly from expectations.
- Monitor CPI data on Thursday, as it could amplify or temper the market’s reaction to the jobs report.
- Stay informed about economic indicators like NY Fed Manufacturing, which unexpectedly dropped to -3.9, signaling potential economic shifts.
- Anticipate a cautious trading environment as investors weigh the implications of these key reports.
Original Post:
Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck
Mon, Dec 15 2025, 3:20 PM
Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they’d pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday morning brings the first post-shutdown jobs report, albeit a week and a half later than normal. With payrolls counts not carrying as much weight as they used to, don’t be surprised to see an increased focus on the unemployment rate. While some of the full-fledged reaction could be held back until traders get Thursday’s CPI data, the jobs report nonetheless could be the heaviest hitting report we’ve seen in several months. Then again, its ability to cause volume/volatility are heavily dependent on how far it falls from forecasts.
- NY Fed Manufacturing
- -3.9 vs 10.0 f’cast, 18.7 prev
- NY Fed Manufacturing
09:27 AM
Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.167
11:43 AM
Back near unchanged levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.177
02:08 PM
10yr up 0.1bps at 4.18 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Extra Information:
For deeper insights into economic indicators, check out the [Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/) and [Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)](https://www.bls.gov/). These resources provide real-time data and historical trends that can help contextualize market movements.
People Also Ask About:
- What is the significance of the jobs report? The jobs report provides critical insights into employment trends, influencing monetary policy and market sentiment.
- How does CPI data affect the market? CPI data measures inflation, which can impact interest rates and investment strategies.
- What does NY Fed Manufacturing indicate? It reflects regional economic activity, offering clues about broader economic health.
- Why is the unemployment rate important? It is a key metric for assessing labor market conditions and economic stability.
Expert Opinion:
The upcoming jobs report and CPI data could serve as pivotal moments for the market, potentially reshaping investor sentiment and influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions in the coming months.
Key Terms:
- jobs report impact on markets
- unemployment rate significance
- CPI data and inflation trends
- NY Fed Manufacturing economic indicator
- market volatility and economic reports
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