Summary:
The June 3, 2025, JOLTS data revealed mixed results for the bond market, with job openings exceeding forecasts, which is negative for rates, and job quits declining, a positive sign. Bonds initially weakened post-data release but recovered by the close, leaving yields and MBS prices largely unchanged. The Senate’s budget bill discussions had no immediate market impact, shifting focus to the upcoming ISM Services report.
What This Means for You:
- Monitor Job Market Trends: Rising job openings can signal inflationary pressures, potentially leading to higher interest rates.
- Assess Bond Market Sensitivity: Stay alert to economic data releases like JOLTS, as they can cause short-term volatility in bond yields and MBS prices.
- Prepare for ISM Services Data: Anticipate market movements based on the next key economic indicator, which could influence bond and mortgage rates.
- Future Outlook: Continued mixed economic signals may lead to a “wait-and-see” approach from investors, delaying significant market shifts.
Original Post:
JOLTS Data Didn’t Help, But it Didn’t Hurt Much Either
Tue, Jun 3 2025, 4:47 PM
Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then weaker after the 10am JOLTS data. The data itself was mixed with Job Openings higher (bad for rates) and job quits lower (good for rates). The headline took precedence and pushed yields back into higher territory on the day. Selling ebbed in the PM hours and MBS ultimately made it back to positive territory. Headlines regarding the Senate taking up the budget bill are ramping up, but with no discernible impact on the bond market so far. Bottom line, a roughly unchanged close in bonds requires very little explanation. On to the next data with ISM Services on Wednesday!
09:57 AM
Slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.409 ahead of JOLTS data.
10:44 AM
Weaker after data. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.441
12:59 PM
10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.47 and MBS down nearly an eighth on the day.
04:26 PM
Decent recovery. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr close to unchanged at 4.451
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Extra Information:
Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Report – Official source for detailed JOLTS data and trends. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy – Understand how economic data influences interest rate decisions. MBS Market Data – Track real-time mortgage-backed securities performance.
People Also Ask About:
- What is the JOLTS report? – The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey measures job market dynamics, including openings, hires, and separations.
- How does JOLTS data affect bond yields? – Higher job openings can signal inflation, pushing bond yields up.
- What are MBS prices? – Mortgage-backed securities prices reflect the value of pooled home loans and are influenced by interest rates.
- Why are job quits important? – Lower quits can indicate reduced labor market confidence, which is favorable for interest rates.
- What is the ISM Services report? – A key economic indicator measuring the health of the U.S. services sector.
Expert Opinion:
The mixed JOLTS data underscores the importance of monitoring labor market trends for bond market participants. While the immediate impact on yields was neutral, sustained increases in job openings could fuel inflationary pressures, prompting future rate hikes.
Key Terms:
- JOLTS report implications
- Bond market volatility
- Mortgage-backed securities (MBS)
- Job openings and inflation
- ISM Services economic indicator
- Federal Reserve interest rate policy
- Labor market trends 2025
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