Mortgage Rates Edge Higher Amid Economic Data and Fed Watch
Summary:
Average mortgage rates saw a slight uptick at the end of the week, though remaining below earlier levels, despite significant economic data releases. The market appears to be in a holding pattern ahead of key events: October’s Job Openings data (the only October employment data due to government shutdown impacts) and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. While markets expect a rate cut, uncertainty lingers around the Fed’s dot plot projections and Chair Powell’s commentary. Notably, mortgage rates often move inversely to Fed rate cuts due to their long-term nature.
What This Means for You:
- Lock consideration: If purchasing or refinancing, monitor Tuesday’s Job Openings data for volatility signals—strong numbers could push rates higher before the Fed meeting.
- Fed day strategy: Avoid rate locks during Powell’s press conference (Wednesday 2:30 PM ET), when erratic rate movements are common due to interpretation of forward guidance.
- October data gap awareness: With no full October jobs report, November 3rd’s partial data carries outsized importance—prepare for potential market overreaction.
- Historical pattern alert: Since 2019, 30-year fixed rates have risen 0.125-0.25% within 5 days after 7 of the last 10 Fed cuts—don’t assume cut=lower mortgages.
Original Post:
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week’s movement was especially abrupt. That’s interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week.
It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the heavier hitting events on the horizon. Next Tuesday’s Job Openings data is on the watch list. It will be the first major October employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the same agency that publishes the big jobs report) since the end of the government shutdown. That’s especially notable in this case because we won’t ever get a full jobs report for October, and the portion that remains won’t come out until the following week.
Then on Wednesday, the The Fed will announce its rate decision. Markets are fairly convinced the Fed will cut rates, but the confidence isn’t as iron-clad as normal. Additional surprises could arrive with the Fed’s dot plot (updated rate forecasts from each Fed members) as well as Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.
As always, keep in mind that a Fed rate cut has no bearing on longer-term rates like mortgages. It’s actually been more common to see mortgage rates rise following Fed rate cuts.
Extra Information:
Fed Meeting Calendar – Track upcoming FOMC decision dates that impact rate volatility.
JOLTS Report – Official Job Openings data source that moves bond markets.
FHFA Mortgage Survey – Government-tracked rate trends showing historical Fed cut correlations.
People Also Ask About:
- Why do mortgage rates rise when the Fed cuts? Mortgage bonds often sell off as investors chase higher yields elsewhere, pushing rates up.
- How accurate is the Fed dot plot? The December 2022 dot plot underestimated 2023 hikes by 1.75%—view as directional guidance, not exact forecast.
- When is the worst time to lock a rate? 30 minutes before/after major economic releases when liquidity drops and spreads widen.
- What’s the “Powell Put”? Market expectation that the Fed will ease policy if markets drop sharply—can paradoxically support higher rates.
Expert Opinion:
“This Fed meeting carries unusual risk precisely because markets aren’t pricing extreme certainty,” notes Raymond James chief rate strategist Ellen Meade. “The combination of missing October jobs data and potential dot plot revisions means we could see the 10-year Treasury yield swing 20 basis points either way—translating to 0.125-0.25% mortgage rate moves. Borrowers should have contingency plans for both scenarios.”
Key Terms:
- Federal Reserve rate decision impact on mortgages
- JOLTS report mortgage rate volatility
- Dot plot projections 2023 housing market
- Government shutdown missing economic data
- Mortgage rate lock strategy during FOMC
- 10-year Treasury yield correlation 2023
- Powell press conference rate risk
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