Summary:
The Jobless Claims report and S&P PMI data were the week’s most significant economic indicators, influencing bond yields and MBS performance. Despite initial selling pressure, bonds showed resilience, with MBS ending down only slightly. The data highlights ongoing economic uncertainty and its impact on financial markets.
What This Means for You:
- Monitor Jobless Claims and PMI data closely, as they can signal shifts in economic momentum.
- Consider the resilience of bonds as a potential hedge against market volatility.
- Stay informed on New Home Sales data, as it reflects broader housing market trends.
- Prepare for continued economic uncertainty by diversifying your investment portfolio.
Original Post:
Reasonably Resilient After Data-Driven Selling
Thu, Jul 24 2025, 5:19 PM
This morning’s Jobless Claims report was the week’s most relevant economic report apart from the S&P PMI data that came out just over an hour later. As it happened, Claims garnered the only obvious response, pushing yields slightly higher in addition to the modest weakness seen in the overnight session. Bonds were able to push back in a friendlier direction at the 9:30am NYSE open–something they’ve done on 3 out of 4 days this week. It wasn’t quite enough to turn a red day green, but with MBS ending down only 2 ticks (.06), some might say it was close enough for government work.
- Jobless Claims
- 217k vs 227k f’cast, 221k prev
- Continued Claims
- 1955k vs 1960k f’cast, 1951k prev
- S&P Manufacturing PMI
- 49.5 vs 52.6 f’cast, 52.0 prev
- S&P Services PMI
- 55.2 vs 53.0 f’cast, 52.9 prev
- New Home Sales
- 627k vs 650k f’cast, 623k prev
- Jobless Claims
09:16 AM
Some selling before and after jobless claims. MBS down 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.438
10:09 AM
decent recovery at 9:30am NYSE open and no major reaction to S&P PMI data. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.411
01:01 PM
MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.403
03:39 PM
Fading a bit now. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.417
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Extra Information:
Understanding Jobless Claims provides insights into unemployment trends. S&P PMI Data offers a deeper dive into manufacturing and services sector performance.
People Also Ask About:
- What are Jobless Claims? – Jobless Claims measure the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits.
- Why is S&P PMI data important? – S&P PMI data indicates economic health in the manufacturing and services sectors.
- How do bonds react to economic data? – Bonds often respond to economic data by adjusting yields based on perceived risk.
- What influences MBS performance? – MBS performance is influenced by interest rates, economic data, and housing market trends.
Expert Opinion:
The resilience of bonds amid economic uncertainty underscores the importance of diversification and staying informed on key economic indicators to navigate market volatility effectively.
Key Terms:
- Jobless Claims
- S&P PMI Data
- Bond Yields
- MBS Performance
- Economic Uncertainty
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