Money

This Unstoppable Growth Stock Just Gave Investors More Reasons to Buy

Summary:

Eli Lilly (LLY) has rebounded from a sluggish start to the year, nearly matching the S&P 500’s performance year-to-date. A strong clinical trial outcome and a robust Q3 earnings report have fueled its resurgence. The pharmaceutical giant reported $17.6 billion in revenue, a 54% year-over-year increase, driven by the success of its weight management drug, tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound). With promising pipeline developments in weight management, oncology, and AI-driven drug discovery, Eli Lilly remains a compelling investment.

What This Means for You:

  • Investors should consider Eli Lilly as a growth-oriented stock due to its strong revenue momentum and pipeline potential.
  • Monitor developments in the weight management market, especially the upcoming approval of orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 drug.
  • Be aware of the impact of price negotiations for Medicare/Medicaid patients, but recognize the offsetting potential of increased sales volume.
  • Long-term investors may benefit from Eli Lilly’s AI initiatives, which could streamline drug development and reduce costs.

Original Post:

The stock didn’t stay down for too long.

Eli Lilly (LLY 1.39%) performed poorly for much of the year. However, the company is rebounding and has, for the most part, caught up with the S&P 500 year to date.

A solid clinical win for a promising candidate helped jolt the stock a few months ago. And just last week, the company’s latest quarterly update provided yet another boost. Here is why Eli Lilly is a strong buy following its blowout third-quarter earnings.

Person raising both fists in the air while standing in front of stock price monitors.

Image source: Getty Images.

Eli Lilly tops lofty expectations

The market had high expectations for Eli Lilly going into its quarterly update, as it has for a while. Eli Lilly’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has been much higher than that of its similarly sized competitor and the healthcare industry average, which is currently 17.1.

LLY PE Ratio (Forward) Chart

Even slightly above-average results would have elicited little more than a chorus of shrugs from Wall Street. But Eli Lilly did better than that. The company’s revenue came in at $17.6 billion, 54% higher than the year-ago period — an outrageous top-line growth rate for a pharmaceutical giant. Eli Lilly is increasing its sales at a rate we’d expect from a much smaller tech company. On the bottom line, Eli Lilly’s non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share were $7.02, 495% higher than the prior-year quarter.

To no one’s surprise, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, sold under the brand names Mounjaro and Zepbound, drove this performance. Tirzepatide’s total revenue in the quarter came in at $10.1 billion, more than doubling compared to Q3 2024. There was plenty more to like about Eli Lilly’s quarterly update. The company now expects revenue of $63 billion to $63.5 billion for the fiscal year 2025, up from its previous projection of $60 billion to $62 billion. Eli Lilly’s new guidance implies year-over-year revenue growth of 40.6% at the midpoint.

Why there is plenty of upside left

Eli Lilly’s financial results are already fantastic, but the stock looks even more attractive when looking at ongoing developments. Here are three.

First, the company is looking to cement its dominance in the rapidly growing weight management market. After posting successful phase 3 clinical trials for its investigational oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, this year, Eli Lilly is racing toward approval for the medicine, literally. The company is benefiting from a new voucher program in the U.S. that allows the Food and Drug Administration to approve a new drug in a couple of months, rather than the usual 10 months.

Eli Lilly is ready to launch orforglipron, which could now get the nod by early next year. Given that it is easier and cheaper to manufacture oral pills versus subcutaneous injections, orforglipron, which should be one of the first oral GLP-1 approved for weight loss, will help increase patient access to these highly effective medicines.

Eli Lilly Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-1.39%) $-13.07

Current Price

$924.37

The company’s other candidates in weight management include retatrutide, a drug that mimics a trio of gut hormones, one more than the already highly effective tirzepatide. Retatrutide could be yet another breakthrough. As Daniel Skovronsky, the company’s chief scientific officer, said during the third quarter earnings conference call: “With its first-of-a-kind triple-acting mechanism, we expect retatrutide can deliver deeper and more rapid weight loss than existing obesity medicines. Even more than tirzepatide.”

In short, Eli Lilly’s work in weight management makes the stock’s outlook very attractive. True, the company recently struck a deal with the White House that will force it to significantly lower the prices of Mounjaro and Zepbound, but even that shouldn’t have too much of a negative impact on its financial results. These lower prices only apply to Medicare and Medicaid patients. In fact, not all those who benefit from these programs will be eligible — only those who meet certain conditions (such as having a body mass index above a certain threshold).

Also, considering Mounjaro and Zepbound have been hard for many patients to get their hands on because they are typically very expensive without insurance coverage, the increased sales volume might somewhat offset the lower prices. So, this news isn’t a significant blow to Eli Lilly’s anti-obesity empire, which should continue to drive solid sales growth for the foreseeable future.

Second, the company is still producing encouraging progress in other areas, notably oncology. In the third quarter, Eli Lilly’s breast cancer medicine, Verzenio, generated sales of $1.5 billion, 7% higher than the year-ago period. And in September, the company earned approval for Inluriyo, a brand-new breast cancer therapy in the U.S.

Eli Lilly has an attractive pipeline, and over the past couple of years, it has expanded it partly through acquisitions. It boasts candidates in areas beyond oncology, such as acute pain. Third, Eli Lilly is looking to stay ahead of technological changes. The company is partnering with Nvidia to build the largest artificial intelligence (AI) supercomputer in the pharmaceutical industry, which is currently owned by Recursion Pharmaceuticals, another Nvidia partner.

With this initiative, Eli Lilly aims to improve the long, slow drug development process through AI-based models. This could help speed up the task and help the company cut costs, thereby boosting its bottom line in the long run. This effort shows Eli Lilly is planning many years ahead. And given the rest of the company’s business, the stock looks far too attractive to pass up, even at current levels. Eli Lilly remains a strong buy after its post-earnings jump.

Extra Information:

FDA Official Website: Stay updated on drug approvals and clinical trial progress.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio Explained: Understand how PE ratios impact stock valuation.
National Institutes of Health: Explore research and trends in weight management and oncology therapies.

People Also Ask About:

  • What is tirzepatide? Tirzepatide is a dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist used for weight management and diabetes.
  • How does Eli Lilly’s PE ratio compare to peers? Eli Lilly’s forward PE ratio is higher than industry averages, reflecting strong growth expectations.
  • What is the significance of orforglipron? It’s an oral GLP-1 drug expected to improve accessibility and affordability for weight loss treatments.
  • How does AI impact Eli Lilly’s drug development? AI accelerates drug discovery, reduces costs, and enhances efficiency in the R&D process.

Expert Opinion:

Eli Lilly’s strategic focus on innovative therapies, particularly in weight management and AI-driven drug development, positions it as a leader in the pharmaceutical industry. Investors should watch its pipeline progress and market expansion, as these factors will likely sustain its growth trajectory.

Key Terms:

  • Eli Lilly stock performance 2024
  • Tirzepatide weight loss drug
  • Orforglipron oral GLP-1
  • Eli Lilly AI drug development
  • Pharmaceutical industry growth trends



ORIGINAL SOURCE:

Source link

Search the Web