Conservative Katie? Don’t Be Fooled By Katie Hobbs’ New Tax Plan

Despite Halloween being long over, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has decided to spend the Christmas season playing dress-up as a Trump-loving, tax-cutting champion of the middle and working class.

On November 20th, Governor Hobbs released her “Tax Cuts for Middle-Class Arizonans” plan. If these concepts sound familiar, it’s because every provision mirrors President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) signed into law on July 4th:

• Increase the standard deduction from $15,000 to $15,750 for single filers, $31,500 for joint filers;
• Add a $6,000 deduction for seniors over 65;
• Deduct tipped income;
• Deduct overtime income;
• Deduct car-loan interest on new American-made vehicles.

After months of opposing the OBBB and urging its defeat, Hobbs now pretends it’s her idea – kind of like wearing a Dollar Store knockoff mask of President Trump and hoping no one notices the “Made in Magaland” tag. The social media reaction was brutal: Trump did this first and better.

Even the corporate media grilled Hobbs for the obvious flip-flop. Her tax-plan heist landed with a thud.

Hobbs erased any perception of authenticity when she quickly recast her own proposal as leverage in her crusade against school choice funding. This showed she was either never serious about tax relief or panicked after backlash from her base.

Either way, the tactic is doomed. Republicans won’t go for it, and ESA “savings” only occur by removing thousands of children from the program – a cruel, unnecessary, and wildly unpopular move. Hobbs’ plagiarized “middle-class family” tax relief pitch collapsed the moment she tied it to defunding school choice. It also raises doubts about whether she even understands how tax conformity works.

Arizona’s tax code is “coupled” with the federal code. Without conformity, taxpayers lose federal benefits and taxable income rises.

Example: A server earning $55,000 plus $5,000 in tips loses both benefits without conformity. Taxable income jumps by $6,500, and the state tax bill rises by about $150 – without earning more.

Hobbs’ plan provides only $215M in offsets, far short of the $420M required to avoid a tax increase. So what she effectively proposed was a tax hike though she’s trying to disguise it as a tax cut.

Hobbs is trying to frame herself as a leader on tax relief. Not only is she an imitator on the policy, but politically no one is following her. Her rollout was met with silence from the Left including most of the Legislative Democrats, progressive groups, and even establish-aligned business organizations. She lacks the political strength to muscle Republicans and is too unpopular to build a coalition. Yet she’s calling on the Legislature to follow her lead? Please.

The Arizona Free Enterprise Club has been preparing a real conformity package for months that would deliver meaningful relief to working families and small businesses. A serious plan would:

• Fully cover the $420M conformity box
• Include OBBB’s pro–small business accounting provisions
• Prioritize broad-based relief and
• Avoid gimmicks like the SALT deduction

Republicans are poised to fast-track a robust package in January. Hobbs’ proposal may struggle to find a sponsor – let alone a committee assignment.

As Trump leads nationally on tax cuts, Arizona Republicans will continue leading at the state level. Hobbs, meanwhile, has spent three years vetoing tax relief or trying to take credit for others’ work. Her “tax cut” plan is a performative scramble to avoid being run over by the Trump Tax Cut Train.

With no originality and no coalition behind her, Hobbs’ best option is to surrender to Legislative Republicans and move on.