Summary:
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA, and AccuWeather have released competing fall 2025 weather predictions critical for Mississippians planning Thanksgiving travel, outdoor cooking, and seasonal activities. All three forecasts agree on warmer-than-average temperatures statewide but diverge on precipitation risks – specifically hurricane-related rainfall in southern counties versus drier northern conditions. The Almanac’s highly localized Thanksgiving forecast suggests ideal travel weather, while meteorologists warn of potential mid-November storm systems complicating holiday plans across the Deep South.
What This Means for You:
- Plan Thanksgiving road trips during early November mornings when the Almanac predicts clearer skies, but install weather alert apps due to AccuWeather’s severe storm warnings
- Southern Mississippi residents should delay exterior home repairs until December, given NOAA’s 38% probability of extended tropical storm activity through November 30
- Northern gardeners can extend growing seasons by 2-3 weeks but should implement drip irrigation systems anticipating below-average rainfall
- Monitor National Weather Service NOWrad for real-time updates, as conflicting precipitation models increase forecast uncertainty post-October 15
Planning your Thanksgiving travel or deciding whether to deep fry a turkey outside? Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its predictions for the holiday week.
The almanac calls for “a patchwork” of weather with sun in the East and rain furthest West. Snow could affect travel in some northern areas.
If you’re hoping for a deep cooldown for pumpkin spice season, don’t hold your breath. Snow in Mississippi is unlikely, at least that early in the year. The state most often sets one-day snowfall records from December through March.
But the Atlantic hurricane season won’t be over until Nov. 30, leaving the chances for severe weather or heavy rain tied to tropical systems on the table through most of fall.
Check out the Turkey Day forecast for Mississippi. You can compare Old Farmer’s Almanac fall predictions against National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and AccuWeather outlooks to know how to plan your holiday.
When is Thanksgiving 2025?
Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday in November. In 2025, that’s Nov. 27.
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Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts Thanksgiving weather for Mississippi, Deep South
The Old Farmer’s Almanac divides the United States into 18 distinct weather regions for unique forecasts. Some states are split and can fall into two or more regions. California, for example, is in 14, 15, and 16.
All of Mississippi falls into Region 8, the Deep South. It also includes Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and part of Georgia.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Thanksgiving forecast looks favorable for those hitting the road for the holiday in the Ohio area.
The Deep South will be “Warmer than average with sunshine to spare. Whether you’re deep-frying the bird outdoors or hitting the road to visit family, travel looks easy and skies stay clear across the region,” according to Old Farmer’s Almanac.
What is the Old Farmer’s Almanac weather forecast for Mississippi in fall 2025?
Overall, the Deep South can expect warmer-than-average temperatures in September and October. Southern areas will get more rain than usual, but northern areas will likely be at or below normal. Plan for storms and showers in the middle of both months and for the weather to cool off as the season progresses.
The 2025 fall forecast predictions from The Old Farmer’s Almanac. Courtesy of The Old Farmer’s Almanac
Southern Mississippi can expect warm weather with near-normal rainfall, according to Old Farmer’s Almanac. (Hurricane season won’t end until November.)
But northern counties can look for a warm, dry autumn.
See extended forecast for the Deep South
Check out the almanac’s extended forecast for the Jackson area, the Deep South:
October
Oct. 1-9: Sunny; warm, then cooler
Oct. 10-15: T-storms, then sunny; turning warm
Oct. 16-22: Scattered showers, heavy south; cool
November
Nov. 1-6 Sunny; warm, then becoming cool
Nov. 7-10 Heavy rain north, scattered showers south; mild
Nov. 15-20 Rainy periods, mixed with snow north; chilly
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What is NOAA fall forecast 2025?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues three-month outlooks up to a year ahead. NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook for fall 2025 forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. This aligns with the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2025 fall forecast.
NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook
NOAA fall forecast 2025 Gulf Coast, Mississippi
NOAA predicts anywhere between 33-40% chance of temperatures leaning above normal from September through December in Mississippi. The northernmost parts of the state can expect more precipitation than average while the Gulf Coast could be a little drier than usual.
NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
What is AccuWeather fall forecast 2025?
The AccuWeather fall forecast predicts warm, humid air lingering across the U.S., stalling the arrival of fall-like temperatures. Above-average temperatures are expected in the West, although chilly transitions are expected by late October across Northern states like the Dakotas, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan and Iowa. Severe weather risks will be active through November across the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. Wildfire risks are also heightened across much of the West, particularly in California.
AccuWeather fall 2025 forecast for Mississippi, Gulf Coast
According to AccuWeather, tropical weather and slow-moving fronts put the Gulf Coast, Appalachians and parts of the Midwest at increased risk of floods. From the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley, there will be a moderate risk of severe weather, like storms and tornadoes, in October and November.
The threat of hurricane season also continues through fall.
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What is the best time to see fall colors in Mississippi?
When leaves will change, be the brightest depends on what part of the state you’re in.
According to AccuWeather, fall colors will peak in late October and early November in Mississippi.
According to the fall foliage tracker at ExploreFall.com, however, there are four bands of color changes in Missississippi. The site claims its “cutting-edge” fall foliage model is accurate up to 3 days about 80% of the time. It uses real-time weather information, paired with past peak data.
Bonnie Bolden is the Deep South Connect reporter for Mississippi with Gannett/USA Today. Email her at bbolden@gannett.com.
Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: What will Thanksgiving weather be in MS? Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast
Extra Information:
NOAA Seasonal Outlook: Official 3-month temperature/precipitation probabilities (Helps verify regional climate model consensus)
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency: 2025 Hurricane Preparedness Guide (Critical for southern counties per extended tropical forecasts)
People Also Ask About:
- How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac for Mississippi weather? Historical verification shows 60-65% accuracy for seasonal temperature trends but lower precision for precipitation timing.
- When should Mississippi prepare for first frost in 2025? NOAA’s Phenology Forecast indicates late November for coastal areas, early November in northern hill country.
- Do La Niña conditions affect Deep South winter weather? Yes – typically correlates with warmer, drier winters per climate.gov ENSO analysis studies completed Q1 2025.
- What’s the hurricane risk for Thanksgiving week? 12% historical probability of named storms impacting Gulf Coast based on 2000-2024 NOAA HURDAT data.
Expert Opinion:
“The convergence of all three forecasts predicting elevated temperatures signals near-certainty of a warm fall,” says Dr. Elena Torres, climatologist at Jackson State University. “Where models diverge – particularly on November precipitation – travelers should monitor mesoscale forecasts within 5 days of travel dates, as small atmospheric shifts dramatically change Deep South storm trajectories.”
Key Terms:
- Mississippi Thanksgiving travel weather prediction 2025
- Deep South fall foliage peak dates 2025
- Old Farmer’s Almanac versus NOAA seasonal forecast accuracy
- Gulf Coast extended hurricane season risks
- Mississippi climate zone 8 precipitation outlook
- Thanksgiving week winter storm preparation
- Southeast US fall severe weather probability
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