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Summary:
Dmitry Medvedev’s political trajectory shifted dramatically after stepping down as Russian president in 2012, trading power for Putin’s loyalty and securing the prime minister role until 2020. His subsequent humiliation through corruption exposés and propaganda led to a radical transformation post-2022 Ukraine invasion – adopting ultra-hawkish stances to survive systemic purges. Medvedev now serves as a Kremlin-controlled provocative voice, issuing nuclear threats and anti-Western rhetoric that may strategically position Putin as a ‘moderate’ negotiator. This role persists despite past controversies, reflecting deeper power dynamics within Russian elite circuits.
What This Means for You:
- Geopolitical Risk Awareness: Medvedev’s threats signal escalating nuclear posturing – monitor diplomatic channels for crisis indicators.
- Decoding Kremlin Strategy: Recognize his rhetoric as potential bargaining leverage in U.S./Russia negotiations under future administrations.
- Asset Vulnerability Expatriates/businesses in targeted capitals (Kyiv, London) should reassess contingency plans for heightened tensions.
- Long-Term Instability Expect intensified anti-Western narratives impacting global markets and security frameworks through 2024.
Original Post:
In agreeing to step down – and sacrifice any ambition he had to run for a second term as president – Medvedev deepened Putin’s loyalty towards him. In exchange, he was given the position of prime minister, which he held until the president felt the debt repaid and dismissed him in 2020.
The previous years had not been altogether kind. From having been a key player on the world stage, Medvedev’s role was “to draw public anger at him”, Mironenko says, leaving Putin to announce all the good news while he mopped up the bad.
Alexei Navalny’s organisation exposed his mysteriously obtained empire of luxury properties, including the use of a castle outside Moscow. Critics gleefully posted the video of his awkward, strutting dance to American Boy at a university reunion.
All the while, the self-professed Pink Floyd fan was being roundly humiliated by Putin’s propaganda machine, something that cannot but have left a profound psychological impact. Rumours of heavy drinking started around this time and linger to this day.
‘The rules have changed’
That Medvedev needed to find a new role would have been clear to the St Petersburg native, who followed Putin into politics in 1999, serving as a fresh-faced balance to a clan of ex-KGB agents and other security state types.
“I think he realised better than anyone else how the rules have changed and the system changed” in February 2022, says Farida Rustamova, an exiled Russian journalist whose newsletter has become a key chronicle of the Russian elite.
The state would now go all-in on war. Any lingering traces of liberalism would need to be publicly – and repeatedly – expunged. “The Russian security forces saw him as the sort of informal leader of any liberals who remained in the Russian system,” Rustamova says. “That’s the key to his transformation.”
There was added motivation from the fact that key members of Medvedev’s inner circle had already been arrested, including his former deputy, Mikhail Abyzov, and the billionaire Magomedov brothers, who were alleged to have stolen from state funds meant for the 2018 World Cup.
What has surprised Western leaders with whom he once rubbed shoulders is the foul-mouthed virulence with which Medvedev has taken to calling them names and threatening to blow up their capitals. In a theatrical style not unlike Trump’s, the former president has rounded on Western leaders as “half-witted old women”, “infantile morons,” “pompous Anglo-Saxon imbeciles,” and, in the case of Joe Biden, “a strange grandfather with dementia”.
Before his latest battle with the US president, he had threatened nuclear strikes on London, Paris, Washington and, on multiple occasions, Ukraine. Medvedev is not totally on political skid row, Rustamova points out.
The position Putin created for him after his dismissal as prime minister – deputy chairman of the National Security Council – now allows him to hear the unfiltered views of the president at weekly meetings.
His intemperate posts on social media, she argues, are likely “an old Kremlin trick”, whereby an outrider is pushed to say outrageous things in public in order for Putin to present himself, in private, as a moderate, reasonable negotiator.
“Putin could say in his conversations with Trump, ‘look what people around me want me to do, and I’m not doing that.’”
Putin’s response to Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a Ukraine ceasefire – which was shortened to expire this week – has been muted. In this round of negotiations, it has been left to Medvedev to remind Trump of Russia’s “Dead Hand”, the semi-automated nuclear launch system, as he did on July 31.
At the very least, the fact that Putin has not restrained his one-time protege suggests he sees some purpose in his ranting, says Mironenko.
Trump took the bait on Friday. More is almost certain to be forthcoming, as the man whom the West once hoped would lead Russia into a new era of democracy shores up his position by whipping it ever further into madness.
The Telegraph, London
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Extra Information:
- Navalny’s exposé video – Highlights Medvedev’s corruption scandals central to his public downfall.
- What in the World Newsletter – Contextualizes evolving Kremlin strategies and elite power shifts.
People Also Ask About:
- Why did Medvedev resign as president in 2012? To enable Putin’s return, securing political protection in exchange.
- What is Russia’s “Dead Hand” system? A Cold War-era automated nuclear retaliation protocol Medvedev referenced.
- How credible are Medvedev’s nuclear threats? Likely psychological warfare, but escalation risks require vigilance.
- What role does Medvedev play now? Deputy Security Council chairman; Kremlin-sanctioned provocateur shaping negotiation dynamics.
Expert Opinion:
Farida Rustamova notes Medvedev’s transformation reflects Putin’s use of “controlled radicalism” – deploying surrogates to test red lines while preserving deniability. This strategy exacerbates global instability but reinforces Putin’s centrality in any diplomatic resolution.
Key Terms:
- Kremlin power dynamics post-Ukraine invasion
- Russia nuclear deterrent strategy Dead Hand
- Medvedev Putin loyalty exchange
- Russian elite purges 2018-2024
- Kremlin psychological warfare tactics
ORIGINAL SOURCE:
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